Introduction
Since the invasion of Iraq, an almost entire region of the Middle East is unstable. The invasion of Iraq forced many Iraqi Arabs to move to more stable countries. Those, who could not move to other stable countries, because of the constrained financial and other resources, they moved to relatively more secure parts of the country. For instance, after the American invasion of Iraq, which started from the south, many Iraqis moved to the northern parts of the country, which were relatively calm. However, as the conflict/war/instability expanded, from Iraq to other countries of the Middle East, the number of immigrants and Internally Displaced People (IDP) also swelled. It must be acknowledged that the instability was caused by several factors and not just war. For instance, the Arab Spring that affected Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, was caused by political factors. These political factors when amalgamated with war-related variables, such as Civil War in Iraq, they intensified the conflict.
Statistics Regarding Conflict and Refugees
From the statistics, we learn that a large number of migrants moved to Europe; however, some a sizeable/number of migrants also moved to GCC countries. The table below provides information regarding 1) The number of migrants, from each country, 2) number of immigrants and their origin in a particular Middle East country, and 3) duration of immigrants in these Middle East countries, including Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (World Bank, 2016).
As per statistics, since 2005 the number of displaced migrants (internally) has swelled four times. As per claim/estimation, the number has swelled from 5 million to 23 million, which aids us in understanding how the conflict has aggravated and expanded over the years. Most of the migrants hail from Syria, who have left their country because of political-security turmoil because of Arab Spring. According to 2015 figures, around 7.1 million of the Syrians had to leave their homes to avoid conflict or war. Iraqi Arabs constitute the second largest group of migrants.
As per 2015 statistics, around four (4) million Iraqis were displaced from their homes because of the violence or war. Statistics reveal that in 2005, around 4.5 million people lived as asylum seekers or refugees in other countries of the Middle East. However, as the violence exceeded in particular countries, these people left their home countries to temporarily or permanently settle in other countries of the region. As per PEW Research Center, in 2015 9.6 million conflict-affected people were living in stern conditions in neighboring countries (Connor, 2016).
Connor, P., 2016. 1. Displaced Migrants. [Image] Available at: http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/18/conflicts-in-syria-iraq-and-yemen-lead-to-millions-of-displaced-migrants-in-the-middle-east-since-2005/ [Accessed 4 February 2018].
The figures regarding cross-border migration reveal that around 9.6 million people have crossed international borders, of countries in turmoil or countries where violence has exceeded from that point, where people are forced to leave that country or particular part or city of it. These statistics are not very precise; however, these figures are considered essential information that is necessary to understand that size and intensity of the conflict.
Connor, P., 2016. 1. Refugees and Asylum. [Image] Available at: http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/18/conflicts-in-syria-iraq-and-yemen-lead-to-millions-of-displaced-migrants-in-the-middle-east-since-2005/ [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Impact of Arab-Spring and Conflict on Real-Estate Sector
For any country, economic growth is great importance, as it allows a country to perform various kinds of tasks and deliver responsibilities. However, the economy is a very complex subject and phenomenon, as it is affected by several factors and most of these factors are exogenous, which implies that they cannot be controlled. Also, we also learn that sometimes economies have to face unexpected challenges, which may cause political instability. The systematic study and scrutiny of history reveal that conflict can be an opportunity for other countries. For instance, the destruction, of Europe, provided an economic opportunity for the United States, which allowed its economy to expand at an unprecedented rate. However, this is usually not the case and conflict may adversely affect the economic progress of the entire region, especially, when the economies of regional countries are connected or amalgamated.
Before we discuss how the economies of the GCC countries have been affected by war, it is imperative to discuss how the economy is positively affected. It is consumption, which is considered an engine of growth. When consumption increases in an economy, it shifts the demand curve to the right, which increases both prices and output (first, the general price level increases and then output). Also, when the supply of labor increases, it reduces wages and as a consequence, more labor is hired to produce output. This increase in employment affects overall consumption, making the economy to swell at a faster rate. However, if demand increases, but not the employment and consumption, it affects the economy in a very adverse manner.
The war or conflict, in certain Middle Eastern countries, has affected economic variables, both exogenous and endogenous, in some ways. The 9.6 million migrants to Middle East countries have affected each country differently. As per World Bank report, because of the refugees, from war-affected countries, the per-capita income, in host countries, has dwindled. However, the real estate sector has benefited. However, the reports suggest that inflation of prices in real estate sector is not abnormal as it was being protected (World bank, 2016).
The GCC countries were reluctant to take in immigrants from the conflict or war-affected countries, which is why the number of immigrants in these countries is not very high. These countries do have a large number of immigrants, but these immigrants have moved to the GCC countries exploit opportunities of economic nature, not to avoid conflict or war, in their home country. It suggests that all the price related changes, in real estate sector, is because of the local reasons and factors and the conflict in certain Middle Eastern countries have not directly affected the economy and its real estate sector. However, some studies also assert that the FDI for Middle East countries is now directed landing in those countries, which are politically and economically stable. It includes almost all the GCC countries (Jawad, 2015).
We also learn that wealthy families, not just Iraq or Syria, purchased second citizenship because of the conflict and war in the region. It has increased strategic investment in the country; there has been the mixed impact of mass migration on the neighboring countries. (Note: in case of GCC countries, the impact on the economy is only strategic.)
Performance of Real-estate Sector of Middle East/GCC countries
Most of the migrants, who had to move to other countries, because of violence and conflict, had a very little money. In fact, most of them were cash-starved, and this is why when they moved to other countries, such as Turkey and Lebanon, they did not positively affect the economy. If it were a positive migration, by which it implies immigration to exploit economic opportunities, it would affect the economies, of host countries, positively.
However, this mass migration is considered a forced migration, and people left their homes unwillingly and unprepared. Also, they left their homes with almost nothing; therefore, this did not have a positive impact on neighboring and Gulf countries. However, because of the movement of large investors with their enormous bank accounts, to these countries, there has been a positive impact on the economy. Some reports suggest that these wealthy families acquired second citizenship of stable Middle East/GCC countries to move to Europe and other developed parts of the world. Therefore, the capital, which these wealthy families’ possess, is either not invested or if it is invested, it is invested for a limited period. There are only a few sectors of the economy, where investors can invest their capital for a short span of time, which include a Real-estate sector of the economy (Wood, 2016).
However, almost all the reports regarding the fluctuations in prices, in real estate sector GCC countries suggest that changes in price or the fluctuations are because of factors other than the war in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. For instance, dwindle in prices, in real estate sector of the UAE, was because of the global recession, dubbed as The Great Recession, caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis. As the international or global economy started to recover, the real estate sector also started to grow. It is also the case with other GCC countries (Forbes, 2016).
The Saudi real-estate sector is facing challenges, and the state intends to improve the performance of the performance, Saudi Arabia’s real-estate sector, by 2030. It is why the country is softening up the sector. It suggests that the conflict in Iraq and Syria has not affected, by the significant level, the real-estate sector (Ghaznawi, 2017). Evidence suggests that most of the migrants, which left their homes to escape war, found refuge in neighboring countries, which include Lebanon and Turkey. In Turkey, the real estate prices have soared. In the villages, towns, and cities, near the Syrian border, the prices of commodities and real-estate units have plummeted. Most of the homes are I provided to the tenants on rent. Very few are bought by the refugees. It suggests that they believe that conflict in their home countries would resolve and they would return to their home countries eventually (PT, 2017).
Response of GCC and Neighboring Countries to Developments
The Arab countries, which include GCC countries, have a very strange and ambiguous policy regarding the war-affected refugees. Most of the war-affected refugees are from Syria and women of the Arab countries have a strange relation with Syria. From the statistics, we know that Lebanon was the only Arab country that had a very non-ambiguous policy regarding the refugees, especially regarding Syrian refugees. It allowed more than one million Syrian refugees, to enter the country. However, its policy regarding the making of refugee camps and buying of real-estate units is very stern.
Saudi Arabia also claims that it has allowed over half million refugees to live in Saudi Arabia. However, these claims are considered highly apocryphal. Also, the policy regarding the buying and selling of real estate units is very strict, and it discourages selling of a house or business to a refugee. Of course, these claims and reports are denied at the state level, but there is evidence in favor of these claims and reports.
Other Arab/GCC countries also have a strict policy regarding the migrants, such as Syrian and Iraqis who have been affected by war. However, their policy is influenced by demographic facts. For instance, in the United Arab Emirates, the migrants are larger in numbers than the locals are. This demographic fact causes xenophobia of a particular type. Therefore, the reason for smaller Arab countries, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, to deny refugees space and business opportunities is very logical (Malsin, 2015).
Other than Arab countries, Turkey has allowed enter of over 1.7 million refugees from Syria (İçduygu, 2015). This policy, of Turkey regarding Syria, is less ambiguous. However, we learn that the economic and real estate policy, of Turkey about refugees, is not very different from other Arab countries. It has strict and very detailed economic and real estate policy, as Turkish government does not allow the refugees to buy, with ease, property. However, refugees can rent houses and live as tenants for an indefinite period. This policy has roots in politics, and it is influenced by demographic realities and facts.
The permanent stay, of refugees, has a serious and strong impact on the political system of a host country. There, not many countries refugees a path to citizenship. One such example is Pakistan, where Afghan refugees, four (4) million have been living for more four (4) decades. However, the state has not offered a path to citizenship to these refugees. Also, the economic impact, of refugees in the host country, is also very ambiguous. For this reason, countries are not sure whether to admit refugees or not and whether to provide/offer economic opportunities to these refugees or not (Gul, 2018).
From the scrutiny of evidence, we can deduce that in the short run, countries would not allow refugees to exploit opportunities in certain sectors of the economy, especially in the real estate sector. It is because there are not only economic ramifications of such policy, but also social and political ramifications, which compel countries to devise ambiguous political-economic policy about refugees.
Conclusion
In the end, it is concluded that from the gathered and scrutinized evidence we learn that Arab Spring and the instability that it has caused (in the form of Syrian Civil War, the emergence of IS and radical political changes), millions of people have displaced. These displaced people fall into two categories; 1) internally displaced people (IDPs) and international refugees. The focus of the study was to learn how this political instability affected economies of the region in general and of the GCC countries in particular.
We have discovered that GCC countries were very reluctant to take in refugees, because of the social, political, and economic ramifications of this decision. We have also learned that the impact, on the economy of GCC countries, of this refugee crisis, is very minute; however, in case of neighboring countries, of war-affected countries (Syria, Lebanon, etc.), the economic and political impacts are ambiguous. Also, neighboring and GCC countries are not willing to allow these refugees to participate, fully, in the political systems of their respective countries. Saudi Arabia is apprehensive of its social and political ramifications, whereas small countries like Qatar and U.A.E are apprehensive about drastic demographic changes.
References
Connor, P., 2016. 1. Conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen lead to millions of displaced migrants in the Middle East since 2005. [Online] Available at: http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/18/conflicts-in-syria-iraq-and-yemen-lead-to-millions-of-displaced-migrants-in-the-middle-east-since-2005/ [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Forbes, 2016. Real Estate Investment Environment In The U.A.E. [Online] Available at: https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/en/real-estate-investment-environment-in-the-u-a-e/ [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Ghaznawi, J., 2017. Riyadh real estate market continues to ‘soften’. [Online] Available at: http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/513139/BUSINESS/real-estate [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Gul, A., 2018. Pakistan Extends Afghan Refugees’ Stay for a Month. [Online] Available at: https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-extends-afghan-refugees-stay-for-month/4191029.html [Accessed 4 February 2017].
İçduygu, A., 2015. Syrian Refugees in Turkey: The Long Road Ahead. [Online] Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/syrian-refugees-turkey-long-road-ahead [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Jawad, R., 2015. Why are the Gulf states so reluctant to take in refugees? [Online] Available at: http://theconversation.com/why-are-the-gulf-states-so-reluctant-to-take-in-refugees-47394 [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Malsin, J., 2015. Why Some Arabs States Refuse to Accept Syrian Refugees. [Online] Available at: http://time.com/4025187/arab-states-syrian-refugees/ [Accessed 4 February 2018].
PT, 2017. Falling lira: Are Turkish real estate prices dropping in 2017?. [Online] Available at: https://www.propertyturkey.com/blog-turkey/falling-lira-are-turkish-real-estate-prices-dropping-in-2017 [Accessed 4 February 2018].
Wood, J., 2016. Wealthy Syrians and Iraqis buy second citizenship to escape war. [Online] Available at: https://www.thenational.ae/world/wealthy-syrians-and-iraqis-buy-second-citizenship-to-escape-war-1.151254 [Accessed 4 February 2018].
World bank, 2016. By the Numbers: The Cost of War & Peace in the Middle East. [Online] Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/02/03/by-the-numbers-the-cost-of-war-and-peace-in-mena [Accessed 4 February 2018].
World Bank, 2016. World Bank’s Response to the Syrian Conflict- September 2016. [Online] Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena/brief/world-banks-response-to-the-syrian-conflict-september-2016 [Accessed 4 February 2018].
+447462439809