One is if the demographic dividend is gone, how it threatens the Chinese economy. China is the most stringent birth control country in the world. As the birth rate of newborns cannot catch up with the pace of population aging, the labor force will continue to shrink, which causing serious and long-term threats to economic development.
Solution
THESIS STATEMENT
How new trends in population/demography affect China’s economic growth
DECIDING ON A PURPOSE
The purpose of the research is to understand the impact/ effect of changes in China’s demographics on its economic growth. Studies reveal that demography plays an important role in determining the size and nature of economic growth. Generally, changes that pertain to demography, very subtly affect an economy and these changes in the economy appear/occur over a long period. For instance, as the sex ratio (gender balance) in a society change, the composition, / constitution of supply of labor changes, which directly influence industrial growth and its evolution. Similarly, when the size of the population starts to shrink, the supply of labor shifts to the left, causing changes in wages (nominal/real) and general output.
China is one of the largest economies in the world; therefore, fluctuations or changes in its economy affect the world economy. For this reason, it is essential to understand factors that will affect China’s economy in near and distant futures.
In this paper, we would systemically scrutinize various demographic changes, such population aging, sex-ratio, and depopulation, to project the impact of demographic changes in the economy. Therefore, the subject of this research is How new trends in population/demography affect China’s economic growth? Also, we will also discuss how China’s birth control policy has influenced changes in demography.
The paper will be very methodical, comprehensive, and comprehensible, which provide authentic information/evidence and projections that will be based on the information/evidence.
THINKING ABOUT THE MATERIAL THAT YOU HAVE RESEARCHED
Before I started systematic research regarding the subject of my study, my focus was the only economic growth of China and impact of changes in population/demography on its economy. However, when I began studying changes in demography, I learned that not only China’s demography is changing at a quick pace, but also there are new demographic trends. Each of these new population/demographic trends has their impact on China’s economy or economic growth.
(Note: we can call these new categories of information variables, which affect China’s economy.)
- Population growth-rate: Every country/ economy desires healthy population growth; the pace of population growth that facilitates economic growth and stability. However, it is extremely difficult to influence changes in demography. However, some countries, such as China, have introduced unusual policies to affect the pace and size of the population. China’s policy, of One Child, had affected not only the pace of population, but also introduced new trends in demography. The unintentional consequences of regulating the pace of population growth are now adversely affecting China. In fact, the study of population growth-rate of China has introduced to several other factors about demography that are or will be affected China’s economic growth and perhaps economic stability (closely linked with political stability).
- Sex ratio: Since the implementation of the One Child Policy, China is witnessing imbalance related to the sex-ratio. I learned that China itself acknowledges that its gender imbalance is most serious in the world. It is primarily because of the One Child Policy, and now it has started to affect (adversely) China’s economic growth/rise.
- Exceptional Growth of Aging Population: Because of several factors, the birth rate in China has declined, especially in urban centers. I discovered that at as the birth rate has declined, there is an evident increase in the aging population. I learned, from the scrutiny of literature/evidence, that this development will affect labor market (supply of labor), which will affect both wages and output.
- Competitive Advantage: China’s competitive advantage, in manufacturing, is because of inexpensive labor and this labor is inexpensive because it is in abundance. However, with the changes in population growth and gender imbalance, China may lose this competitive edge or advantage, which will affect its economic growth.
- Taxes and Social Security: I learned that as the working population is decreasing, so does the tax base. Also, the pressure would be on the state to provide facilities for an aging population, from tax revenues that may be on the decline in the near future.
After the discussion regarding the size and nature of China’s economy, the research paper will provide information regarding the competitive advantage, which China’s manufacturing sector has against manufacturing sectors of other countries/economies. As per our research, the competitive advantage is due to the abundance of supply of labor, which makes China a labor-intensive economy; however, because of changes in demography, this competitive advantage is deteriorating.
After discussing competitive advantage, we will focus on population growth rate. After deliberating on it in detail, we will discuss gender imbalance and its implications. This discussion will be followed by a discussion on the aging population and taxes.
LINKING MATERIAL WITH PURPOSE
The gathered evidence, which pertains to different information categories (factors) is relevant and linked to the purpose. This implies that special effort would not be required to link material with a purpose. For instance, the extraordinary decline in population growth affects both economy and society. Plenty of studies have established a negative correlation between general output and population. Similarly, studies on the exceptional growth of China’s economy infer that China’s rise as a major economic power is primarily because of its capacity to produce inexpensive products (due to inexpensive labor). Therefore, any shift (to the left) in the supply of labor curve, will affect wages and output.
THINKING ABOUT AN INTRODUCTION
In the introduction, of the research paper, I will provide information and evidence. Information will be regarded China’s economic growth (since the opening up of China’s economy); the size of growth, its nature, and ramifications of growth. Evidence will be regarding the association between economic growth and population/demography.
Brainstorming has allowed me to 1) identifies various demographic trends/factors and 2) develop a sequence for this research paper. Because of the brainstorming, my paper will be informative, comprehensive, comprehensible, and methodical.
THINKING ABOUT A CONCLUSION
The conclusion is the total-sum of entire research. The conclusion of a research paper provides a very brief summary and projections. Projections are generally based on evidence, which is why the more relevant and credible information/evidence, more accurate the projections. The conclusion of my research paper will have two parts (summary and projections).
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